It has now been 12 months since the election of Donald Trump as president, and almost 9 months since his inauguration. In May, I posted an article by a friend, which was originally written to advise me on how to invest in these “interesting times”. Well, it turned out to be the most visited page on my site—much to my dismay, of course, to think that that was more interesting than my own writing!
So, my friend and I decided to do the responsible thing and actually hold up the investment advice up to scrutiny. Something all investment advisors should do, that is.
If you knew my friend, you would not be surprised at all by the massive, thorough, and detailed tome that arrived yesterday, full of triumphs, mea culpas, caveats, and solicited and unsolicited advice. Investment advice is only as good as its performance, so you be the judge!
Investing in the Age of Trump, 6-Month Review
First off, if I am now going to be a pundit, I need to do some disclosures. 1) I do not follow my own advice, and neither should you, because it would be unwise to do everything someone tells you to do. 2) Relatedly, this analysis/advice is specifically geared toward Jennifer’s financial situation, as a person who will be retiring in a few years and has modest retirement savings to complement a decent Social Security income, and has some serious medical expenses coming up. Your situation is likely different.
I am using the publication date of the original article, 5/11/17, as the baseline for the 6-month review, and the closing price on Friday, 11/10/17, as the 6-month mark. For the baseline for Trump Trade in general, I am using the closing price as of 11/9/2016, the day of the 2016 general election. I could use 11/10/2016 as starting point, to make it a neat 12-month comparison, or 11/9/2017 as the end point—and sidestep the embarrassing gold crash yesterday—but these dates were picked a few weeks ago, and probably will not make a huge difference in the end.
I am also ignoring dividends, mainly because I am feeling lazy. I don’t think it will make a huge difference in whether I was right or wrong; if it does, someone else can do the work to prove it, but, if anything, my figures will probably look better, since my advice leans toward value stocks anyway.
As you can see in the accompanying spreadsheet, I’ve made some good calls and blown some big calls.